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Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (Policy Analyses in International Economics)
by:Li-Gang Liu, Sherman Robinson, Zhi Wang
The Asian financial crisis precipitated significant changes in real exchange rates in the region that substantially altered the volume and pattern of international trade. It was predicted that the crisis countries would increase their exports and, especially, reduce their imports. Japan, China, and the other non-crisis countries will experience more...
The Asian financial crisis precipitated significant changes in real exchange rates in the region that substantially altered the volume and pattern of international trade. It was predicted that the crisis countries would increase their exports and, especially, reduce their imports. Japan, China, and the other non-crisis countries will experience more complex changes. The trade balances of the United States and Western Europe would deteriorate by about $40-50 billion as a result of the currency movements in Asia. Written at the height of the crisis, this study quantifies the impact of the currency changes on the individual countries in Asia, on the United States, on Europe and on other regions on a sector-by-sector basis. It analyzes the additional impact that might occur if China, a relative bystander in the crisis, were to devalue its currency as well. It then examines potential trade policy responses to these developments including the risk of an upsurge in protectionist pressure in the United States.
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